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Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.
Persons: , Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York
Economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV that a sharper Fed pivot is ahead. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementMarkets are right to price in a Federal Reserve policy pivot but should brace for a rate-cutting cycle that's sharper than expected, economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV. "We believe we are heading into a proper downturn that will require a proper easing cycle." So we're not exiting the period in which rate hikes become really impactful in the economy," she said.
Persons: Frances Donald, , Donald, We're, Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Manulife Investment Management
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
The US economy may already be mired in recession, Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. Downside labor revisions and rising job losses indicate a downturn has hit, the QI Research CEO said. AdvertisementThe US is already mired in recessionary downturn, and rising job losses prove it, veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementBy that standard, the rule was triggered in October of last year, according to recently published labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023, indicating job losses of 192,000. Other analysts have also projected rising recession risk, hand-in-hand with a labor market fallout.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, , there's, it's, Booth, Goldman Sachs, payrolls, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Downside, QI, Service, Bloomberg, Fox Business
The US economy already looks like it's in a recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. The chief strategist of QI Research pointed to weakness in the job market, with layoffs rising. She said that puts the economy in a precarious state, especially with US debt-taking already looking similar to China's. The chief strategist of QI Research has warned for months that the US economy is already in a recession, despite Wall Street's upbeat outlook for a soft-landing. But a downturn is already evident in the weakening job market, Booth said, pointing recent downward revisions in monthly job growth figures.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, , Booth Organizations: QI, Service, QI Research Locations: China
The US may already be in a recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. A steady rise in the unemployment rate above cycle lows signals a recession, she said. Other forecasters have said the unemployment rate could reach 5% by year-end. AdvertisementThe US could see a rise in layoffs, and there's one indicator in the labor market that suggests a recession is already here, according to veteran market forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth. The Quill Intelligence Research chief strategist pointed to worrying signs in the labor market, despite headline job growth remaining strong.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Organizations: Service, Quill Intelligence Research, Business Locations:
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailQI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth talks the labor market and impact of inflationHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Our experts answer readers' student loan questions and write unbiased product reviews (here's how we assess student loans). download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementMillennials with homes are an overlooked group in the student loan conversation, one economist argues. One group of borrowers will face a unique set of challenges in the face of a return to student loan debt repayments, which resume Sunday, a former Fed economist told The Wall Street Journal. However, they will be the group that cannot access any student loan relief.
Persons: , It's millennials, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Dion Rabouin, Booth Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Dallas Fed
Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.
Persons: “ Don’t, , Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, , Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, , McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas
Here's six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg. From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there's a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally. That's given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally. Here's 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market's breathless climb. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.
Persons: Warren Buffett, David Rosenberg, it's, there's, Dow Jones, Oppenheimer, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Rosenberg, Tom Lee, Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor, John Hussman, Hussman, Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, DiMartino Booth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Buffett, Rosenberg Research, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Investors are so excited about stocks that they're missing the bigger, grimmer economic picture. Danielle DiMartino Booth said the complacency reminded her of the dot-com and housing bubbles. She pointed to a surge in bankruptcies and mounting pressures in the bank and real estate sectors. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. DiMartino Booth has made it clear she's in the latter camp for now.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, BNN, DiMartino Booth, Biden, Sam, Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, QI Research, BNN Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, , they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, , Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, , Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Daniel GreenhausDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorking Americans have bigger life expenses to worry about than egg prices: QI's DiMartino BoothDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.
Persons: DiMartino Booth Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management
The Federal Reserve enacts monetary policies to stabilize prices and maximize employment in the U.S. economy. These dueling goals are known as the dual mandate. For example, if prices are too hot, the Fed may vote to raise interest rates to influence a decrease in borrowing. Other experts argue that the dual mandate remains key to keeping the U.S. economy safe and stable. Watch this video to see how the Fed tries to strike a near-impossible balance to promote both parts of the dual mandate.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Thomas Hoenig, David Wessel Organizations: QI Research, CNBC, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Hutchins, Brookings Institution Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, and Jan KniffenDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, Gerald Storch, Storch Advisors CEO, and Jan Kniffen, J. Rogers Kniffen WWE CEO, join 'Last Call' to discuss the recent stock slides in luxury retail, the state of the high-end consumer, and more.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, Jan Kniffen Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jan Kniffen, J, Rogers Kniffen Organizations: Research, Storch Advisors, Rogers Kniffen WWE
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are stressed at every level, says fmr. Toys "R" Us CEO Gerald StorchDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, Gerald Storch, Storch Advisors CEO, and Jan Kniffen, J. Rogers Kniffen WWE CEO, join 'Last Call' to discuss the recent stock slides in luxury retail, the state of the high-end consumer, and more.
Persons: Gerald Storch Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, Jan Kniffen, J, Rogers Kniffen Organizations: Consumers, Research, Storch Advisors, Rogers Kniffen WWE
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow used car sales could preview what's to come with Wednesday's inflation dataHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC. Danielle DiMartino Booth, Quill Intelligence CEO, joins the show to preview the CPI report on Wednesday.
The good news: Banks were willing to go to the Fed for help, and the central bank was willing and able to comply. Programs such as the BTFP can have that stigma, too, but in this case the Fed made its conditions a bit easier than the discount window. The BTFP also pays par value on securities offered in exchange for cash, while the discount window uses market value. "The discount window takes everything. "We have seen the largest uptake of the discount window in history.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell will 'hide behind' data to keep rates higher for longer, says economistDanielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence disagrees with the Fed's use of time-lagged data to keep rates higher for longer. She argues that banks are signaling that the bankruptcy and default cycle has "begun to unwind".
This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed unlikely to hike interest rates by 50 basis points in February meeting, says strategistDanielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence says nothing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his press conference led her to believe a 50 basis point hike in February "was even in the cards."
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.
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